An article published in today's MercuryNews.com titled "Hooked On Google" by Elise Ackerman explores whether or not Microsoft still has a fighting chance in todays changing technology/media landscape. When compared to the enormous success the likes of Google has experienced over the last couple years, the picture indeed looks grim. Ackerman points out in his article:
"Microsoft's page views, an approximation of how long visitors spend at its sites, was down 12 percent in December to 18 billion, according to the research firm. Google's page views were up 90 percent to 13 billion.
Microsoft has steadily lost ground in search, despite developing its own search engine in 2004. As of November, Microsoft's share of Internet searches has fallen to 8 percent. Two years ago, when MSN search was released in beta, Microsoft share's of U.S. searches stood at 14 percent, according to Nielsen//NetRatings.
Microsoft's Internet slide is reflected in its online sales. During the quarter ended Sept. 30, sales for the online business unit were $539 million, down 5 percent in a year. Google, in cruel comparison, reported revenue of $2.69 billion, an increase of 70 percent."
In fairness, Ackerman does offer that despite the above situation Microsoft has had a rather active 2006 by introducing a "slew of online offerings":
"In addition to the widely praised Virtual Earth, an exact 3-D representation of major cities, there were three new search services, a new portal, online video, classified ads, mobile e-mail and social networking. And perhaps most importantly, there was new adCenter software released in May that was supposed to help Microsoft make more money from its online offerings."
However, I think this misses a more important point why Microsoft should not be underestimated.
Reason 1: They are the only major operating platform that cuts across desktop PCs (Microsoft OS), Mobile Phones/PDAs (Microsoft Mobile), TV (Microsoft iPTV) which both Verizon and Comcast are deploying across their massive Fiber and Coaxial nets, and Game Consoles (Xbox & Xbox 360).
Reason 2: Due to the reach across their installed platform base detailed above, Microsoft is in an enormously unique position to be one of the first companies to have a viable cross channel digital media offering. From behavioral targeted web, e-mail and search properties, to instant message, in-game (via their purchase of Massive Inc. last May), mobile and interactive TV advertising the folks in Redmond seem to be slowly transforming themselves from a software company to a media company. Even though it does not exist now, it does not take one to imagine Microsoft's plans for using adCenter as the hub of their emerging cross channel media universe.
Reason 3. One word: PASSPORT. Microsoft Passport accounts are central repositories for a person's online data and can include personal information such as birthdays and credit card numbers. They can also act as a single key to access many online accounts.
Microsoft uses Passport authentication for its Hotmail e-mail service, MSN Messenger instant messaging service, XBox Live Service, and Mobile Services. Several online retailers, such as eBay, Canon, Expedia and Starbucks, also use Passport authentication. Microsoft estimates there are 200 million active Passport accounts.
It does not take a rocket scientist to guess that Microsoft will use this Central Customer Information (CIF) file to help deliver more personalized content/advertising to its opt-in customers as its able to understand their behaviors and activities across digital media platforms.
Its important to note...that I am hardly a fan of Microsoft. Indeed, I have switched my work computer to the Powerbook just a couple of months ago. I am a huge fan of the iPod (with exception to their Nazi DRM platform) and also plan to be one of the first to buy an iPhone when it is released. I also do not proclaim to have a crystal ball that give me any special insight that the points made above will make a lick of difference. All I am doing is agreeing with Gartner analyst, Allen Weiner, when he states at the bottom of Ackerman's article: Don't Underestimate Microsoft.
Jeremi Karnell-President, One to One Interactive
The Nation is currently running an article about internet service provider’s ability to control content, and their willingness to do so. What the piece foretells is a PPC (pay per content not pay per click) world were sites that attract a lot of traffic would have to pay ISPs for the use of the pipeline. This would have one of two effects, either traffic hogs (Google) would have to pass the fees on to users or advertisers. Google VP Vinton G. Cerf stated that this "would do great damage to the Internet as we know it." This article sounds a little far fetched, until you begin to look at the warning signs that have been popping up lately
Verizon trys to charge Google for access : Verizon is beginning to set aside up to 80% of its consumer pipeline for its own TV service, the reason stated has to do with maximizing ROI on network instillations. Content providers would then have to compete for space as consumers expect more and more. ISP's could potentially alter the quality or quantity of the content from any online source to its' user base
For Example "Customers of Apple's iTunes music store, say, might find their downloads slowed down, or blocked completely, if Apple refuses to pay a transaction fee to their ISP. Users of the Vonage Internet phone service might lose their dial tones if their Internet provider wants to sell its own brand of phone service."
"When you introduce discrimination of any kind, it's anti-innovative," says David Isenberg, a networking pioneer who is currently a fellow at the Berkman Center for Internet and Society at Harvard University.
And Finally, "BellSouth and Verizon have been trying to force big Web sites to pay extortion-type fees if the sites want adequate bandwidth, with Google a prime target. But Google has news for them: It won't pay". At least for now.
All this comes on the heels of an OTO Insights post a few days ago. Yahoo! search is currently blocking paid search content from competitors in partner SBC's footprint. Is this the beginning of the end of internet neutrality?
Props to the recently departed James Doohan for my favorite example of botched speech recognition, with Steve Martin yelling at his answering machine in 'LA Stories' coming in as a close second-place.
PC Magazine published an interesting interview with Drs. Robert Sicconi and David Nahamoo, two prominent players in IBM's Speech Recognition division to discuss the current and potential future state of speech recognition in our society. This conveniently comes off the coattails of IBM's official release of Embedded ViaVoice 4.4 which boasts the ability to "comprehend nuances of spoken English, translate it on the fly, and even create on-the-fly subtitles for foreign-language television systems".
This is a technology that has struggled to gain a firm foothold into the consumer market. It has been around in one way or another for decades now (especially as dictation tools) but the complexity of algorithms required to perform reactive analysis of speech patterns, regional dialects, speed, and grammar have slowed down acceptance of the software.
Dr. Nahamoo suggests that the next big breakthroughs in Speech Recognition will be further enhancements to Call Center software, Person-To-Person communication (Language translation), and improved translation of Closed Captioning. From a global perspective, the on-the-fly translation has vast potential, though I will be interested to see how they handle challenges, like tone and context, which are purely subjective. Then again, if you frequently find yourself looking for bathrooms in multiple foreign countries, then your automated language solution is probably coming soon.
Personally, I'm getting impatient to see marked improvements in software designed for automobiles. This article was published almost 5 years ago and engineers are grappling with virtually the same problems today. Yes, the automobile is a noisy environment, but if Bose can manufacture headphones that filter out airline frequencies, why can't this be applied to the same tones emitted in a common driving environment?
So, hurry up and wait for the latest crop of Speech Recognition solutions, and don't throw away your keyboard anytime soon. This is good news for the burgeoning Carpal Tunnel Remedy industry, but not many others.
Motorola is poised to purchase Kreatel Communications, which is a leading manufacturer of set-top boxes and the supporting infrastructure for delivering digital television content over IP-based connections, specifically broadband. The service is commonly known as Internet Protocol Television (IPTV). While IPTV is more popular in Europe right now, estimates are that global profits will be upwards of $17 Billion by 2010*. What I like most about the Kreatel set-top boxes is that they are powered by Linux (open source!), leaving the door wide open for developer community to code customizations. TiVo is also written in Linux, by the way, which could make them a desirable acquisition for Motorola should they plan to push IPTV as a standard soon. Besides, Motorola's current Digital Video Recorder (DVR) interface stinks in comparison to Tivo.
*Source - TDG Research
NASA's Stardust spacecraft returned safely to Earth when the capsule carrying cometary and interstellar particles successfully touched down at 2:10 a.m. Pacific time this past Sunday in the desert salt flats of the U.S. Air Force Utah Test and Training Range. Launched in February 7th, 1999, Stardust rendezvoused with the Comet Wild2 in January 2004 and captured thousands of cometary dust grains in special aerogel collectors.
This is the first sample return from a solid solar-system body beyond the Moon and the first ever samples of contemporary interstellar dust ever collected. In order to search for the tiny dust samples embedded in the aerogel, scientists from the Nasa Jet Propulsion Lab at the California Institute of Technology are recruiting volunteers online to download a virtual microscope (VM) . The VM will automatically connect to a server and download so-called "focus movies" -- stacks of images that are collected from the spacecraft using an automated microscope at the Cosmic Dust Lab at Johnson Space Center. Those interested may learn more and apply to participate at the following website: http://stardustathome.ssl.berkeley.edu/
Getting bored of Googling old friends to see if you have more hair and a smaller waistline than them? Check out this guy's article describing how he used Amazon, Yahoo!, and Google Maps to pinpoint people likely to lead civil war (or who may just attend one of our fine Liberal Arts universities and have no evil intentions whatsoever). *Warning* - the article goes in some detail about the code used to accomplish this, but you'll get the general theme down without having to learn TCL.
Ultimately, this is no different than what is done in any good data mining application, it's merely meant to show what can be found by manipulating a few disparate data sources around the Internet.
...Plus, you don't need an unauthorized wiretap program to accomplish this, it's all (currently) legal!
I find the emerging phenomenon of consumer generated media (CGM) to be fascinating. As Web 2.0 continues to unfold, I think we'll see more of what savvy marketers like P&G and Kao are already doing to engage young, advertising-jaded consumers with their brands.
The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reports today (via MediaPost):
"If an agency can't deliver the kinds of commercials you want, just ask your customers to do the job. That's the approach being taken by Kao Corp., which markets Ban deodorant, in a contest designed to create ads that appeal to teenage girls.
The contest was announced in magazines like CosmoGirl and Teen People and has already drawn about 4,000 entries from kids 12 to 20 who were asked to submit an image and fill in the blank in the company's "Ban It" slogan. Nine winners will be chosen and will run in an ad in March in US Weekly.
The tactic is a smart one, especially when trying to reach teens and people in their 20s--a desirable demographic for advertisers that is particularly resistant to hard-sell advertising.
"Younger audiences have become incredibly cynical about advertising,'' says Steve Thibodeau, an executive with Dotglu, a New York ad agency owned by MDC Partners, Toronto, which is creating the Ban campaign.
P.J. Katien, Ban's assistant marketing director, adds that reaching young female consumers is especially challenging. In the past, he said, consumer-product companies followed a simple formula: "you explained the benefit and explained the product and they would buy it. Now it's about getting her to feel like she is involved. No more one-way messaging."
Kudos to P.J. Katien, Ban's assistant marketing director at Kao, for voicing today's most powerful piece of marketing advice for 2006 and beyond: No more one-way messaging. And double kudos to him and marketers like him who have the courage to be at the leading edge of change. It's often lonely out there, but it's almost always the right place to be!
Best,
- James Gardner
Group Director/Life Sciences Practice Leader
Yahoo struck again over the weekend, making another small but important step forward in the world of Web 2.0 and consumer generated media (CGM). Knowing that their own blog platform, Yahoo360, was not being particularly well-received, Yahoo was smart to join forces with a stronger partner like Moveable Type. We use Moveable Type here at OTOinsights and endorse its feature set and usability. It's the real thing.
Like Google, Yahoo has a vision about Web 2.0 and is moving aggressively to secure its position. But, while Google builds, Yahoo buys and partners -- an interesting and key point of difference. The race is early, but the competitive dynamics are already starting to become clear.
This all said, would any of our readers in Redmond, WA care to sound a wake-up call for Microsoft? They really look and feel asleep at a time when the pace of change in this world appears to be accelerating. After all, there's only one Flickr, one del.icio.us, and one Moveable Type. When they're locked up, they're locked up ... no second chances (or at least no easy ones).
Here's what was announced:
"Yahoo Inc. (Nasdaq:YHOO - news) and Six Apart Ltd., creator of Movable Type -- the most popular software used to create professional blogs -- said on Sunday Yahoo will be the preferred supplier of Movable Type for small businesses.
The partnership is the latest in a string of deals by the world's largest Internet media company as it seeks to embrace so-called "social media," the new generation of Web sites that encourage Internet users to share written text, photos and videos.
On Friday, Yahoo acquired Del.icio.us, a site for users to share their favorite Web links. Earlier this year, it acquired Flickr, which offers a way to annotate and share photos.
Yahoo will effectively act as the preferred provider of Movable Type for small business users, taking advantage of its scale and efficiency, Anil Dash, vice president of professional products for San Francisco-based Six Apart, said in a phone interview.
"This is going to be our recommended (sales) channel for small business," he said."
We live in interesting times, indeed!
Best,
- James Gardner
Group Director/Life Sciences Practice Leader
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